Econometric techniques and their innovative role in calculating overprice: the Car Wash case

  • Eduardo Juntolli Vilhena Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
  • João Ricardo Pereira Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
  • Júlio César de Camargo Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
  • Rafael Jardim Cavalcante Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
  • Leandro Araújo de Almeida Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
  • Marcelo Rodrigues Alho Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
  • Nivaldo Dias Filho Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
  • Rafael Martins Gomes Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil

Abstract

The study was developed with a view to testing a methodology to calculate the difference between the value charged by public bid processes in an environment with cartels and the respective value that should be charged in a competitive environment. The forms of calculation of this article encompass an econometric model estimated by the ordinary least squares method in cross-section, and a binary response model, known as propensity score matching. The sample used in the calculations contains data of 135 contracts of enterprises from Petrobras’s Supply Area, of which 48 have evidence of wether or not the cartel is active. The results of the estimation of these models indicated that public bid processes won by cartelized companies showed a discount 17% inferior to that of the public bid processes won by non-cartelized companies, which is statistically significant. Such study, due to the soundness and reliability of the results obtained, showed plausibility of the use of similar techniques in the scope of the activity of the Federal Court of Accounts in the fight against corruption in bidding processes of public construction works, including in the calculation of the damages and in the call for accountability, resulting in anincrease of the timeliness, continuity and effectiveness of the identification of such illegal acts in the public administration.

Author Biographies

Eduardo Juntolli Vilhena, Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
is an auditor of the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU), with a BA in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Brasília, (UnB), and a specialization course in Public Law by Uniderp.
João Ricardo Pereira, Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
is an auditor of the Federal Court of Accounts, with a BA in Civil Engineering by the Military Institute of Engineering (IME), with a master’s degree in Economics from the University of Brasília (UnB), undertaking a doctoral degree in Economics from the University of Brasília (UnB).
Júlio César de Camargo, Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
is an auditor of the Federal Court of Accounts, with a BA in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Brasília (UnB), and MA in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Brasília (UnB).
Rafael Jardim Cavalcante, Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
is an auditor of the Federal Court of Accounts, with a BA in Civil Engineering from the University of Brasília (UnB).
Leandro Araújo de Almeida, Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
is an auditor of the Federal Court of Accounts, with a BA in Economics from the University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) and in Law by the Faculdade Marista do Recife.
Marcelo Rodrigues Alho, Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
is an auditor of the Federal Court of Accounts, with a BA in Administration from the Unified Educational Association of the Federal District (AEUDF) and with a specialization course in Governmental Audit by the Faculdade Omni.
Nivaldo Dias Filho, Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
is an auditor of the Federal Court of Accounts, with a BA in Civil Engineering by the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR).
Rafael Martins Gomes, Federal Court of Accounts of Brazil
is an auditor of the Federal Court of Accounts, with a BA in Civil Engineering from the University of Brasília (UnB), with a specialization course in Diagnostic Engineering by the INBEC and currently undertaking a master’s degree in Construction Works Management by the IPOG.
Published
2017-01-01
Issue
No 138 (2017): Revista do TCU
Section
Articles

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