Return and economic-financial sustainability of public policies: the case of emergency aid in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract

The article presents a work with the general objective of exploring a proposal for na economicfinancial evaluation of public policies and a specific objective of evaluating the financial return of the payment of emergency aid in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. The study was carried out at a time of intense debates about the need for the government to act to help a part of society in a situation of vulnerability, accentuated by the pandemic, in confrontation with issues related to fiscal balance, the reversal of the fall in production and also the importance the efficiency of public policies. The net present value (NPV) of the public policy was evaluated, through the sum of costs and benefits in financial terms, capitalized for an initial moment. The costs are the monthly payments made in the program, while the benefits were obtained through the statistical correlation between the federal tax collection and these payments. In emergency aid, a negative NPV was obtained, which, although it resulted in a cost related to the increase in the public debt of approximately R$ 62.5 billion, also produced a recovery of the economy by fostering the demand, which resulted a increase in tax collection.